Questions

Should we abolish nuclear weapons?

Confidence · 50%
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Compiled positions
  • Nuclear disarmament through diplomatic communication is the only viable path to survival, because defense systems cannot reliably stop ICBMs, deterrence depends on rational actors, and reframing adversaries as negotiating partners—not enemies to be killed—is the sole psychological escape from annihilation.

    28 arguments
    • The U.S. government comprises many distinct agencies including 17 or 18 intelligence services, of which the CIA is only one and some like the NRO are extraordinarily classified.
    • Systems like Iron Dome, THAAD, and Aegis can intercept short- and medium-range missiles but cannot intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles traveling 500 miles above Earth; conflating the two is incorrect science.
    • Disarmament makes everyone safer by drastically reducing the chance that a dangerous six-minute nuclear launch-decision scenario will ever occur.
    +25 more
  • Human distinctiveness lies in the capacity for large-scale cooperation around shared ideas, which enables civilization-building but can equally be turned toward destruction.

    1 argument
    • Humans' ability to cooperate at mass scale around shared ideas distinguishes them from chimps and enables construction of complex societies like the Roman Empire and protective legal systems, though this same capacity can be weaponized destructively.
  • Creating superintelligent AI is strategically unwinnable because control is theoretically impossible, safety cannot match capability growth, and the resulting risks span extinction, suffering, and permanent loss of human agency.

    15 arguments
    • AGI control is theoretically impossible due to self-modification, containment escape, and the impossibility of maintaining zero bugs across centuries.
    • Safety research cannot outpace capabilities because safety remains an infinite problem generating new unsolvable challenges with each solution.
    • Superintelligent systems pose three distinct existential harms: death, extreme suffering at scale, and permanent loss of meaning that make creation strategically unwinnable.
    +12 more
  • Financial regulation should rely on social norms and market discipline rather than prescriptive rules, because historical evidence shows heavy restrictions often backfire, modern finance has outgrown Depression-era safeguards, and government cannot effectively manage risk.

    3 arguments
    • Historical financial restrictions like Glass-Steagall were based on false premises and long-run stock returns vindicate optimists over pessimists.
    • Depression-era banking regulation is obsolete; better solutions involve automatic stabilizers like deposit insurance and floating exchange rates.
    • Retail should access private credit and volatile assets with clear social norms about gambling, diversification, and acceptable loss rather than regulatory barriers.
Open bet
No state conducts an explosive nuclear test before 2029closes 8/14/2026
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