Forecasting military conflict probability is extremely difficult because there are too many unknowable key factors to generate an estimate one would want to rely on
definitionpending
Speaker
Unidentified Speaker — Former Naval Intelligence Chief on the Likelihood of War Wi… [S9K_fTCY1qY]Evidence Quote
“there's so many factors that nobody nobody would have really a uh an estimate that you would want to bank on right because there's so many things that you just can't determine on those key factors”
Source
Former Naval Intelligence Chief on the Likelihood of War With China— Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik PreslCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:02:44 PM
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