Using quantitative probability statements is more precise and less ambiguous than using verbal descriptions of probability (like 'likely' or 'probably') for communicating odds in intelligence analysis
normativepending
Speaker
Questioner / InterviewerEvidence Quote
“one of the principles of intelligence analysis when it comes to forecasting is that it can be sort of tricky when people use words to describe probability and so because of that it's better to use quantitative statements”
Source
Former Naval Intelligence Chief on the Likelihood of War With China— Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik PreslCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:02:44 PM
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