Time-average and ensemble-average outcomes diverge fundamentally in systems with absorbing barriers (like bankruptcy or death); a bet with positive expected value can bankrupt an individual if they keep taking it over time, even though an ensemble of people taking it once would gain on average.

causalpending

Speaker

Nassim Taleb

Evidence Quote

if i take a hundred gamblers i send them to the casino...if i sent one single uh trader okay one single person to the casino for 100 days okay have complete different picture

Source

A conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Stephen Wolfram at the Wolfram Summer School 2021Wolfram
Created: 8/11/2026, 1:49:43 AM

My Notes

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