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Forecasts are inherently probabilistic, so if an economist says a recession is more likely than not but it doesn't occur, this is not a hugely consequential error since they weren't claiming certainty

normativepending

Speaker

Larry Summers

Evidence Quote

“Forecasts are probabilistic. I don't know of anybody who said they thought there was an 80% chance of a recession. So, if you say you think it's more likely than not that there's going to be a recession and then there isn't, I don't think that you've made a hugely consequential error.”

Source

Tariffs, Decline, and the Promise of AI | A Conversation with Larry Summers and Niall Ferguson— University of Austin (UATX)
Created: 8/11/2026, 6:52:24 AM

My Notes

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