factual

Experiments Validate Observational Predictions

Progress in empirical economics is verifiable via replication and experiments: overlaying the randomized Moving to Opportunity experimental results on the predictions from the observational Opportunity Atlas work produces a scatter plot showing the two line up well, meaning the team could forecast how randomly-assigned movers would do on average, giving confidence the estimates are stable.

factualpending

Speaker

Raj Chetty

Evidence Quote

We were able to predict how well they would do on average. So there clearly was some stability across studies over time in those estimates, which gives me some confidence that we're making some kind of progress here.

Source

Raj Chetty on Economic MobilityEconTalk
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:35:10 AM

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