forecast
Direct Good Mostly Washes Out After Transformative AI
While the effects of helping someone live a healthier, better life are permanent in the sense that the life happened and mattered, the effects of direct global-health interventions on the long-run future will mostly wash out and not persist in any systematic, predictable way after the crazy changes brought by transformative AI—similar to how most things probably did not predictably persist across the Industrial Revolution.
forecastpending
Speaker
Holden KarnofskyEvidence Quote
“I think in terms of the effects on the future, I do expect it mostly to wash out... I think that's probably how things look pre and post-industrial revolution.”
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:35:22 AM
My Notes
Loading notes...