In a casino example with 100 players each making a 50% return (50% bet = +50%, 50% bet = -100%), the ensemble average is $1,495 per player, but if one player repeats daily and blows up on day 28, they lose everything despite positive expected value—illustrating ergodicity failure.

factualpending

Speaker

Jason Buck

Evidence Quote

“if a 100 people were going going to the casino...but let's say Jack goes to the casino and every day he uses the system...we get to day 27 and Jack has $56 million...but then day 28 shows up and you blow up”

Source

Why Defense Wins in Investing | Practical Lessons from Jason Buck— Excess Returns
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:37:59 AM

My Notes

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