The stock market is not a reliable leading indicator of recession and provided little warning before the Great Depression (which started in September 1929) until October 1929 when it crashed, and has not been a leading indicator historically, particularly in the last 20-30 years.

factualpending

Speaker

Lacy Hunt

Evidence Quote

the last critical turning points uh the stock market provided no warning are only the to the barest of of warnings maybe of the few weeks or very limited um take the Great Depression of 1929. the recession the the Great Depression started in September the stock market did not Buckle until October of 29. [16:47]

Source

Lacy Hunt: We're Facing A Perfect Storm Of 'Economic Deterioration'Wealthion
Created: 8/12/2026, 6:42:20 PM

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