Kokotajlo's current estimate (as of the conversation) is that superintelligence is more likely around 2028 rather than 2027, representing approximately a one-year delay from the original forecast.
forecastpending
Speaker
Daniel KokotajloEvidence Quote
“currently I'm guessing it would probably be more like 2028 instead of 2027, actually. So that's some really good news. I'm feeling quite optimistic about an extra. That's an extra year of human civilization”
Source
Robot Plumbers, Robot Armies, and Our Imminent A.I. Future | Interesting Times with Ross Douthat— Interesting Times with Ross DouthatCreated: 8/11/2026, 7:14:40 AM
My Notes
Loading notes...