P-values are random variables themselves; observing a p-value of 0.12 means the true parameter could produce p-values ranging widely, so approximately 53% of repeated experiments could yield p < 0.05 even though the true p-value is 0.12, making thresholds like p < 0.05 arbitrary.
factualpending
Speaker
Nassim TalebEvidence Quote
“p value is a random variable...you can get at 0.01 by two or three by repeating two or three times the experiment”
Source
A conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Stephen Wolfram at the Wolfram Summer School 2021— WolframCreated: 8/11/2026, 1:49:43 AM
My Notes
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