Forecasting using binary point estimates for fat-tail variables is foolish because you cannot specify an event threshold that is scale-invariant—the forecast will be different for 10 million deaths versus 100 million, and the meaning changes as you move the scale.
normativepending
Speaker
Nassim Nicholas TalebEvidence Quote
“the characteristics scale that I explained in in the Black Swan if you use that then you have a problem with forecasting you see because it is sterile in the sense that what comes above has a meaning see is it higher than 10 million higher than 100 million it has a meaning”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:44:21 AM
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