forecast
Status Quo Ante Is Realistic Iran Endgame
The realistic way to end the Iran war is a return to the status quo ante before the bombing began, with Iran allowing unconditional commerce through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US stopping bombing, leaving nuclear, regime change, and Iranian freedom off the table; this is not the worst outcome because the regime is critically weakened and any renewed nuclear program could be struck again, but the Trump administration is unlikely to accept it because doing so admits the war was a mistake.
forecastpending
Speaker
Francis FukuyamaEvidence Quote
“i don't see the trump administration accepting that because basically they're going to be admitting that the war was a big mistake”
Created: 6/14/2026, 2:08:32 AM
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