Concentrating supply chains on a single supplier produces 'pseudo-efficiency' — a better bottom line achieved by being short an option whose cost does not appear in the numbers until a tail event (such as a supplier in Wuhan during COVID) materializes; robustness instead requires redundancy and inventory, which is not a true cost but can be antifragile because in a crisis squeeze the commodity price spikes and stockpiled inventory can be sold.

causalpending

Speaker

Nassim Taleb

Evidence Quote

Better bottom line, but what I call pseudo efficiency because they're short that option

Source

Nassim Taleb - The #1 Rule to Not Be a Sucker (The Ergodicity Principle)Picking Nuggets
Created: 6/18/2026, 2:32:12 PM

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