Markov models are particularly valuable for forcing clarity about assumptions because they assume that if transition probabilities are fixed and every state can reach every other state, the system will converge to a unique equilibrium—which means if someone claims their system is path-dependent or complex, they must be either creating new states or changing transition probabilities, forcing them to be explicit about their mechanisms.
causalpending
Speaker
Scott PageEvidence Quote
“if you want to argue the world is complex if you want to argue for path dependence... you then have to either be saying I'm creating a new state it didn't exist before or I'm fundamentally changing these transition probabilities [30:09]”
Source
Mental Models for complexity | Scott Page and Shane Parrish | The Knowledge Project #55— The Knowledge Project PodcastCreated: 8/10/2026, 11:30:19 PM
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