The likelihood of AGI-related state AI moratorium legislation passing through the U.S. Senate via budget reconciliation (which requires overcoming the Byrd Rule) is currently estimated at 10% on Metaculus.
forecastpending
Speaker
Jeff AlstottEvidence Quote
“Metaculus is currently putting 10% probability of that passing”
Source
Artificial General Intelligence's Five Hard National Security Problems— The Berkman Klein Center for Internet & SocietyCreated: 8/11/2026, 7:15:38 AM
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