forecast

Advanced Civilizations May Outgrow War

There is no natural arc toward civilizational self-destruction; rather, as civilizations advance they tend to develop mechanisms that make conflict less likely, because war is stupid—you destroy things, kill people, and gain nothing you couldn't get otherwise, while belligerence gives others an incentive to destroy you—so a plausible trajectory is that advancing civilizations make war obsolete through world government or international norms, as a response to the Fermi paradox.

forecastpending

Speaker

Steven Pinker

Evidence Quote

It’s just as plausible to me that as civilizations advance, rather than having more and more destructive wars, they could continue the trend that we’ve been on since World War II and they eventually make war obsolete.

Source

Steven PinkerConversations with Tyler
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:34:01 AM

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