The best approach to market forecasting is hurricane-style scenario planning with a 'cone of uncertainty' rather than point forecasts, where investors prepare playbooks for multiple outcomes (e.g., $150 oil, $50 oil, or equilibrium continuation) and adjust probabilities as new information arrives.
normativepending
Speaker
Michael LebowitzEvidence Quote
“it's so dumb, I think, when when the Wall Street Journal asked 15, 20 Wall Street analysts, 'Where's the S&P going to be?'...Have a cone of uncertainty where you've looked at all the different scenarios.”
Created: 8/12/2026, 6:23:20 PM
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