forecast

Taiwan disruption is a setback not a catastrophe

A major disruption to Taiwan's chip production would be a significant setback preventing more compute for a few years, but compute would spring up elsewhere — for example existing fabs outside Taiwan, while inferior, could produce older-generation GPU-like chips and still go very far, making the impact a matter of cost and delay rather than collapse.

forecastpending

Speaker

Ilya Sutskever

Evidence Quote

there are fabs outside of Taiwan, they're just not as good. But you can still use them and still go very far with them. It's just cost, it’s just a setback.

Source

Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligenceDwarkesh Patel Podcast
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:26:51 AM

My Notes

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