In Gaussian distributions, the expected deviation above 3 sigma is slightly more than 3 sigma, and as you move to higher sigmas the expected additional deviation shrinks, but in extremist time the scale stays the same—the expected life expectancy of a Gaussian-distributed entity at 100 years old is about 2 additional years, but for a Pareto distribution it scales the same way.
factualpending
Speaker
Nassim Nicholas TalebEvidence Quote
“if I take a gaussian the expected deviation above 3 Sigma is a little more than three sigma... as you go higher it get it shrinks... whereas an extremist time the scale stay the same yeah so the expected uh life if we were uh distributed like company size... so it's a same like saying oh he's 100 years old he has another 50 to go how many he's a thousand years old another 500 to go”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:44:21 AM
My Notes
Loading notes...