factual

Current Growth Rate Cannot Continue 10000 Years

Extrapolating the current ~2% economic growth rate out 10,000 years (a blink of an eye on galactic scales) implies we would need multiple times the value of today's entire world economy per atom in the galaxy; since we cannot exceed the speed of light to leave the galaxy, we run out of material, meaning current growth is too high to sustain and our era is necessarily a special, dynamic anomaly.

factualpending

Speaker

Holden Karnofsky

Evidence Quote

if you just take the current level of economic growth and extrapolate it out 10,000 years, you end up having to conclude that we would need multiple stuff that is worth as much as the whole world economy is today–– multiple times that per atom in the galaxy. If you believe we can't break the speed of light, then we can't get further than that.

Source

Holden Karnofsky — History's most important centuryDwarkesh Patel Podcast
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:35:22 AM

My Notes

Loading notes...