The Lindy Effect: Survival Predicts Future Life

For non-perishable things (ideas, books, technologies, companies), life expectancy increases with age—the Lindy effect: a Broadway show running 300 days is expected to run roughly 300 more, and you can predict the future by removing from the present everything that was not there 25 years ago to see what will remain in 25 years; the condition is health, since an old-but-sick technology may not survive just as a sick old man may not outlive his grandson.