Although the CBO says the bill increases the deficit by $3.4 trillion over 10 years, it also says Trump's tariffs will raise $2.8 trillion over 10 years, and with another ~$600 billion in newly added tariffs the gap is effectively bridged, so the two must be analyzed together — leaving the deficit roughly status quo at ~6.2-6.3% of GDP rather than the 9% claimed in the Moody's downgrade.