Ray Dalio believes there is a 35-40% chance the US experiences civil war, though he likely means this metaphorically—increased polarization and geographic self-sorting—rather than literally with guns.

factualpending

Speaker

Unidentified Speaker — 4 'Deep Risks' That Could Decimate Your Portfolio | William… [Njen6qpugMU]

Evidence Quote

Red Dio believes there's a 35% chance or even 40% chance that the US sees a Civil War...I don't think he means it literally with guns I think he just means more polarization

Source

4 'Deep Risks' That Could Decimate Your Portfolio | William BernsteinDavid Lin
Created: 8/10/2026, 11:00:47 PM

My Notes

Loading notes...