The takeoff speed (the rate at which AI research accelerates at each capability milestone) is a critical variable in the timeline to superintelligence, and the AI 2027 scenario's estimates could plausibly be wrong by 5x in either direction—either 5 years instead of 1 year, or 2 months instead of one year—making it a key area for additional research.
normativepending
Speaker
Daniel CocatelloEvidence Quote
“A key thing that I think that everyone needs to be thinking about is uh this this takeoff speeds variable um how much faster does the research go when you've reached the first milestone and how much faster does the research go when you reach the second milestone and so forth. We say in the scenario that we could easily imagine it being five times slower than we depict and taking sort of like 5 years instead of one year.”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:28:11 AM
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