A fertility rate of approximately 1.6 appears to be the equilibrium rate that populations arrive at when people have full freedom to choose their family size, based on historical evidence that desired family size has been around 2 children, combined with the fact that roughly 20% of the population cannot have children.
factualpending
Speaker
Charles GoodhartEvidence Quote
“if you go back really quite a long way...those people who chance at choosing their family size usually wanted two...if you assume that...20 % of the population cannot have children...your fertility rate inevitably ends up at about 1.6.”
Created: 8/12/2026, 6:30:58 PM
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