Expert consensus on AI timelines is uncertain and contested even among leading ML researchers, with substantial credible disagreement rather than convergence, making precise timeline predictions low-value relative to scenario planning across multiple timelines.
factualpending
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Sarah Hastings WoodhouseEvidence Quote
“among people who have thought about this much more than me. There is such sort of radical disagreement”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:16:09 AM
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