forecast

Lock-In: Advanced Tech Could Freeze Civilization

Historically, bad rulers are temporary because they age, die, and the world keeps changing; but at a high enough level of technological development there may be nothing new to find and people may not age or die, so the sources of dynamism could disappear, allowing a stable indefinite dictatorship—Karnofsky estimates the odds of such lock-in given transformative AI at roughly a quarter to a half.

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Speaker

Holden Karnofsky

Evidence Quote

if the rate of technological progress speeds up a lot, we could quickly get to a world that doesn't have a lot more dynamism and is a lot more stable. We could have these very stable societies.

Source

Holden Karnofsky — History's most important centuryDwarkesh Patel Podcast
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:35:22 AM

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