Japan's 20-year-old cohort is 50% of its 1948 peak, while the US is only 12% below its peak — if the US had Japan's demography it would be 'freaking out,' showing that Japan's cultural acceptance of population decline masks an economic drag that will eventually constrain the US through similar (though slower) demographic pressure.

factualpending

Speaker

Jeremy Grantham

Evidence Quote

The cohort of 20 year olds in Japan is 50% of what it was at its peak in 1948...If the US was 12% below its peak, it would be freaking out.

Source

Jeremy Grantham on why this market will fall by 50% but nobody will warn youBehind the Balance Sheet
Created: 8/12/2026, 5:57:13 PM

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