General Secretary Xi Jinping has set a goal to have military capability to take Taiwan by 2027, but he is unlikely to achieve this goal by that date; the task is extraordinarily difficult (an amphibious operation across 100 miles of water) and Xi likely lacks confidence in success at this moment.

forecastpending

Speaker

Jim Baker

Evidence Quote

General Secretary Shei has said that he would like the capability by 2027. They're not going to make it. They're not going to be ready by 2027 in my view...the Pentagon doesn't plan on probabilities...we must be ready to defend Taiwan.

Source

The Challenge of ChinaThe Aspen Institute
Created: 8/11/2026, 6:35:07 AM

My Notes

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