The paper deliberately avoids assigning probabilities to scenarios because the epistemic uncertainty about AGI development timelines, technical capabilities, and outcomes is too high to produce credible probability estimates
normativepending
Speaker
Gregory SmithEvidence Quote
“the high level uncertainty just made it hard for us to feel we could really... assign probabilities to these”
Source
A New Cold War, Rise of China and Global Chaos: How AI Will Rewrite Geopolitics | Gregory Smith— Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik PreslCreated: 8/11/2026, 7:20:38 AM
My Notes
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