Employment is a lagging indicator that typically looks pretty good at the beginning of a recession when jobs numbers are still strong, and only shows its worst conditions when recessions are bottoming out, so the lack of current job weakness does not rule out severe upcoming labor market deterioration.
factualpending
Speaker
John LoderingEvidence Quote
“as a lagging indicator if you go back and look at almost every recession the jobs numbers actually look pretty good at the beginning of a recession in hindsight and they actually tend to bottom they look their worst when recessions are are bottoming coming out [49:07]”
Created: 8/12/2026, 6:42:20 PM
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