Daniel Kokotajlo's 2021 forecast 'What 2026 Looks Like' proved substantially accurate in predicting AI progress over 2021-2026, getting 'a bunch of stuff right, a bunch of stuff wrong, but overall held up pretty well', demonstrating forecasting ability that increases confidence in the AI 2027 sequel.
factualpending
Speaker
Scott AlexanderEvidence Quote
“The thing that gives me optimism is Daniel back in 2021, wrote the prequel to this scenario called What 2026 Looks Like. It's his forecast for the next five years of AI progress. And he got it almost exactly right.”
Source
AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo— Dwarkesh PatelCreated: 8/11/2026, 7:03:29 AM
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