Despite the current anti-involution and rebalancing drive, China will return to leaning heavily on manufacturing and infrastructure investment: expect a ramp-up in Q1-Q2 2026 and possibly a fiscal deficit target raised slightly above 4% at the March National People's Congress, in order to hit a ~5% growth target for 2026.
forecastpending
Speaker
Alice HanEvidence Quote
“we'll see a ramp up in manufacturing and infrastructure investment in uh Q1 and Q2 of next year... the fiscal deficit target could be increased slightly above 4% [40:55]”
Source
How Much BIGGER Can China’s Trade Surplus Get? | China Decode— The Prof G Pod – Scott GallowayCreated: 6/18/2026, 1:57:55 PM
My Notes
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