The 2-year Treasury yield is a superior predictor of actual short-term interest rates (specifically SOFR) compared to Fed funds rate expectations, as demonstrated by its track record correctly predicting rate rises in 2021-22 well in advance, and currently the 2-year is signaling that rates must go up.
factualpending
Speaker
Michael HowellEvidence Quote
“The orange line has always been a perfect, almost perfect predictor of market interest rates, very short-term rates.”
Source
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell— David LinCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:46:58 PM
My Notes
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