The reverse law of large numbers states that when you average individual outcomes in thin-tailed domains, aggregated effects differ dramatically from individual effects; a medication might lower hypertension by 4 points on average, but the distribution of individual effects may be wide, making population-level claims inapplicable to individuals.
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Nassim Nicholas TalebEvidence Quote
“what I call the reverse uh law of large numbers if if you take a property say how much hypertension is going to be lowered by this medication right and reverse it and look at what are the odds of working on your patient you got a complete different answer”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:35:40 AM
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