causal
Matching Reality Doesn't Validate Assumptions
Because a researcher can pick from many alternative assumption sets and calibrate them with enough degrees of freedom, successfully reproducing an observed phenomenon B gives no license to conclude the chosen assumptions are correct or to transport them to explain other phenomena.
causalpending
Speaker
Paul PfleidererEvidence Quote
“if I have enough degrees of freedom in choosing those assumptions--this is the cherry picking--and I have enough degrees of freedom in the calibration exercise, I shouldn't be all that surprised if I'm able to come up with B.”
Created: 6/13/2026, 12:27:00 AM
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