causal

Matching Reality Doesn't Validate Assumptions

Because a researcher can pick from many alternative assumption sets and calibrate them with enough degrees of freedom, successfully reproducing an observed phenomenon B gives no license to conclude the chosen assumptions are correct or to transport them to explain other phenomena.

causalpending

Speaker

Paul Pfleiderer

Evidence Quote

if I have enough degrees of freedom in choosing those assumptions--this is the cherry picking--and I have enough degrees of freedom in the calibration exercise, I shouldn't be all that surprised if I'm able to come up with B.

Source

Paul Pfleiderer on the Misuse of Economic ModelsEconTalk
Created: 6/13/2026, 12:27:00 AM

My Notes

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