Only 3% of children are severely affected by genetic diseases, but people tend to dismiss this risk as low ('I'm in the 97%') when deciding on genetic counseling, despite 97% being acceptable odds for casino gambling; this reflects difficulty with rare event reasoning and the 'trolley problem' framing where not intervening feels blameless even though non-intervention is still a choice

causalpending

Speaker

George Church

Evidence Quote

Only 3% of children are severely affected... If those were your odds of winning at the horse races... you'd take them

Source

A billion years of evolution in a single afternoon — George ChurchDwarkesh Patel
Created: 8/11/2026, 6:40:03 AM

My Notes

Loading notes...