factual

Optimists underestimate time to AGI

Optimistic people working on a technology tend to underestimate the time it takes to get there, which is why Sutskever grounds his own AGI timeline estimates against concrete analogies rather than trusting his optimism.

factualpending

Speaker

Ilya Sutskever

Evidence Quote

optimistic people who are working on the technology tend to underestimate the time it takes to get there.

Source

Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligenceDwarkesh Patel Podcast
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:26:51 AM

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