In the Maturation and Ease Off phases of the business cycle, the statistics look almost identical, with lagging indicators remaining the strongest component and leading indicators deteriorating while coincident indicators are mixed, making it difficult for observers to know in real-time whether the economy is slowing.
factualpending
Speaker
Lacy HuntEvidence Quote
“the most uh concrete that I can say about maturation and ease off is that the statistics look almost identical um the lagging indicators are Remain the strongest component in both maturation and ease off the leading indicators are deteriorating [13:38]”
Created: 8/12/2026, 6:42:20 PM
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