The probability of military conflict between the US and China over Taiwan in this decade is 60-40 (60% chance of conflict) if Xi Jinping remains in power and certain conducive factors align, compared to 30-70 (30% chance) under any alternative Chinese leader
forecastpending
Speaker
Unidentified Speaker — Former Naval Intelligence Chief on the Likelihood of War Wi… [S9K_fTCY1qY]Evidence Quote
“I would say uh that it's 6040 if Xin Ping's in power and there are some of those factors at lineup that are conducive I think it's 6040 that uh he will go”
Source
Former Naval Intelligence Chief on the Likelihood of War With China— Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik PreslCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:02:44 PM
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