Applying mediocristan (Gaussian-based) statistical tools to extremistan phenomena like pandemics is mathematically invalid: mean and variance are uninformative for fat tails; prediction error is 'monstrous'; sampling error is very high; the law of large numbers works very slowly or not at all; 95-99.9% of observations fall below the mean, making average-based predictions useless for extreme events.

causalpending

Speaker

Nassim Taleb

Evidence Quote

the gaussian distribution is based on mean and variance and these are uninformative...your prediction error is monstrous because sampling error is very high...the law of large number is does work at all works very slowly...you have 95% or to 99.9% of the observation falling below the mean

Source

The Merge: Ep. 03 | The past is not gone; it lives on in the futureMaroun Semaan Faculty of Engineering and Architect
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:27:10 AM

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