factual

Political Business Cycles Are Empirically Overwhelming

Politicians everywhere who have the power try to goose up the economy before an election, and the empirical evidence for this is overwhelming; the paradox his 1987 paper addressed is why this fools anyone, modeling it as a signaling game where voters know they're being manipulated but vote for the incumbent anyway.

factualpending

Speaker

Kenneth Rogoff

Evidence Quote

that paper was about the paradox that I know you’re just making things look good. I know you’re hiding something from me... but I’m going to vote for you anyway. That’s what that paper was. It looked at it as a signaling model

Source

Kenneth RogoffConversations with Tyler
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:28:48 AM

My Notes

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