The Russian oil export disruption has not yet occurred because Russia was able to shut in wells in non-core permafrost zones (Tatarstan and Kyrgyzstan), reducing exports by only about one million barrels per day for 6-8 weeks before restarting, but when sanctions on maritime insurance expand on January 1st to cover any vessel carrying Russian cargo combined with European oil price caps, this will lock in at least 2-3 million barrels per day of disruption, which will be sufficient to cause pump freeze as water freezes in pipes, taking Russian oil offline for decades.