definition

Validity vs reliability distinction in GDP measurement

GDP data should be assessed on two separate dimensions: 'validity' (whether the level estimate is correct, which in rich countries is off only a few percent but in sub-Saharan Africa can be plus-or-minus 50-100%) and 'reliability' (whether the methodology stays consistent over time); the bathroom-scale analogy shows that a consistently miscalibrated scale is fine for tracking change, but a scale someone secretly recalibrates in the night ruins time-series comparison, while comparing yourself to a neighbor using a different scale ruins cross-country comparison.

definitionpending

Speaker

Morten Jerven

Evidence Quote

it wouldn't be such a big problem if your personal scale was off a pound or two... The problem that comes in is that of reliability, and that is if someone changes your scale in the middle of the night.

Source

Morten Jerven on Measuring African Poverty and ProgressEconTalk
Created: 6/13/2026, 12:25:58 AM

My Notes

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