causal

Strong Priors Resist Falsification Via Tweaks

When a prediction fails, a sufficiently strong prior lets a modeler add a new assumption or tweak the model to explain away the contradiction and preserve cherished assumptions; doing this every time a large natural experiment fails violates scientific method and means the view is unfalsifiable.

causalpending

Speaker

Paul Pfleiderer

Evidence Quote

the exercise is one that's dissatisfying if our view of the world is one that we'll never reject, because we can always come up with a mitigating factor or some tweak to the model that preserves our most cherished assumptions.

Source

Paul Pfleiderer on the Misuse of Economic ModelsEconTalk
Created: 6/13/2026, 12:27:00 AM

My Notes

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