The Federal Reserve's stress test for large banks modeled a 40% real estate decline and higher high-yield spreads, but these surrogates are outsized because today's mortgage market is 99% government-guaranteed, making private label losses negligible compared to the 2008-2012 period.
causalpending
Speaker
Chris WhelanEvidence Quote
“i think they're wrong i think the surrogates they use in their model are outsized you're never going to see those kind of losses in a market which is 99 government guaranteed securities today”
Source
The Fed’s Ticking Time Bomb Is About To Explode | Joseph Wang & Chris Whalen— Forward GuidanceCreated: 8/11/2026, 1:23:06 AM
My Notes
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