Success in deterring Chinese military action over Taiwan could reduce the conflict probability from 60-40 to approximately 50-50 within one to two years
forecastpending
Speaker
Unidentified Speaker — Former Naval Intelligence Chief on the Likelihood of War Wi… [S9K_fTCY1qY]Evidence Quote
“maybe if you talk to me in a year or two I'll take a look at and go you know what we've been so successful I think the issue is now 5050 but we're not there it's still 6040”
Source
Former Naval Intelligence Chief on the Likelihood of War With China— Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik PreslCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:02:44 PM
My Notes
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