forecast
War is a costly problem to be solved
War is a very costly thing that humanity will eventually drive down to very low levels because it represents losses everyone would prefer to avoid; reducing it is a sociotechnical problem of organizing society and navigating conflicts without those losses, which Christiano expects to succeed over a long time.
forecastpending
Speaker
Paul ChristianoEvidence Quote
“It's sort of like this kind of technological or sociotechnological problem of sort of how do you organize society, navigate conflicts in a way that doesn't have those kinds of losses.”
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:36:05 AM
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