The 'exorbitant privilege' — the US paying a lower return on its borrowing than it earns on its lending — is not unique to the US but shared by most advanced economies, while developing economies have the reverse; if the US retains this privilege, stabilizing its net liability/GDP ratio requires the goods-and-services deficit to shrink by 2% of GDP (implying a 15-20% real depreciation), but if it loses the privilege the deficit must shrink 3.5% of GDP (implying a 25-30% real depreciation).

causalpending

Speaker

Joseph Gagnon

Evidence Quote

if it loses that exorbitant privilege for some of the reasons that were discussed earlier, um then that goods and services deficit has to shrink by 3 and a half% of GDP

Source

The changing dollar regime: An updatePeterson Institute for International Economics
Created: 6/18/2026, 1:57:48 PM

My Notes

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